by Miceál O’Hurley
COPENHAGEN — Donald Trump’s obsession with the US acquiring Greenland for what he calls “America’s security interests” threatens to end America’s credibility and prestige on the world stage. While his stated preference has been to purchase the semi-autonomous Danish island his bellicose saber rattling has been enough to spook America’s once stalwart European allies. In light of his refusal to rule-out unilateral military action by US forces, NATO, of which the US was a founding member and integral partner, has had to contemplate the unimaginable — invoking the Article 5 mutual defense mechanism to protect one NATO member country against one if its own.
Vladimir Putin must be overjoyed at the prospect of NATO crumbling from within.
Trump’s mere ability to muse aloud and cause international chaos arises from the demise of what once made America truly great – her democracy imbued by republican virtues. The very founders the world’s longest modern experiment in democracy so feared monarchical monomaniacal tendencies (a reasonable fear with “Mad King George” on the English throne) they created a government with three, co-equal branches to restrain vesting too much power in any single entity or person. The wisdom of this construct was America’s inter-generational balance and stability. It never occurred to America’s founders that any one branch, let along two branches of the American government would abdicate its powers, authority and responsibility to the executive branch. And yet, this is exactly what has happened.
The American people have become so individually concerned with personal advantage the concept of corporate democratic responsibility has vanished. Her political class shares in this myopathy. The early days of America having shared a collective experience of struggle, sacrifice and common good “to form a more perfect union” ceased after World War II. The soldiers, sailors, airmen and statesmen (inescapably male as reflection of their era) all had served, suffered and sacrificed like the generations before them “to make the world safe for democracy”. Whatever their political party affiliation they were committed to the idea of America’s pursuit of democratic norms imbued by republican ideology. It’s been a while since that was true and the latest generations to occupy seats in Congress, the Executive Branch and the Courts are individualist with little experience of the need for, or discharge of collective national responsibilities as envisaged by America’s past.
This is not to say that America has always been virtuous. Every nation nurtures the myth of being a noble actor. Rarely is this true. And yet, in many ways, despite its many foibles and failures, the arc of history was such that the US, as a government, and Americans as a people, bent towards its better angels. American aid programmes administered by Herbert Hoover fed millions in post WWI Europe. When Stalin’s manufactured famines starved millions to death, most notably experienced by the Ukrainians in what we know today as the Holodomor, the US sent food and agricultural aid despite the Soviets being ideological enemies. After World War II the Marshall Plan was instrumental in helping to feed and rehabilitate Europe. The same held true in numerous instances of aid being sent by Washington to its ideological opponents on humanitarian grounds such as in numerous instances in North Korea, to Iran after earthquakes in Bam killed tens-of-thousands, to Myanmar after Cyclone Nargis’s destruction of the Irrawaddy Delta, to Syria, Sudan, Cuba… the list is endless.
Today, however, it is unimaginable that in the absence of a unified consensus on US foreign policy and appreciation for the value of strategic partnerships these lofty ideas which undergirded and guided America’s character and conduct for almost 250-years would be realised. With a President who sees the unitary executive theory of government as a license to engage in personal whim, often pursuing highly transactional initiatives without consideration of the law of unintended consequences applying, America’s foreign policy defies definition or reliability and worse, reason. With Congress having abdicated its Constitutional check-and-balance and oversight roles the Trump has been given wide latitude to do what other American Presidents refrained from even contemplating. The lack of restraint and reliance on stare decisis on the part of the US Supreme Court, made exceptionally non-reflective of America, its values and sensibilities, let alone its tradition of legal prudence, has only further emboldened Trump to feel he is accountable to no one but himself. His administration’s willingness to ignore legal norms and disregard lawful orders issued by courts, stands as testament to the failure of this co-equal branch of government too.
Everything militates towards taking Trump’s demands for the acquisition of Greenland seriously. While most scholars of history would dismiss the idea of Trump pressing forward with his plans to make Greenland American the guardrails of America’s democratic republic have been removed. Consider the acquisition of Alaska from Russia in the 1860s. Secretary of State Seward, acting on behalf of President Andrew Johnson, still required the Senate to act twice to seal the deal. First, the US Senate needed to approve the treaty with a two-thirds majority. Second, Congress, who according to the Constitution holds the “power of the purse strings”, had to appropriate the money. Despite these significant hurdles approval came easily in the post-Civil War 1867 Congress where Democrats were a scarcity (47 Democrats versus 173 Republicans).
Trump has no such power today. The House of Representatives in almost evenly divided with only 2 Republicans giving them the upper hand in the balance of power. In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats and the Democrats, 47. Given significant skepticism by his own party about the acquisition of Greenland by either purchase or force, given its potential to destroy NATO and dubious benefits, any notion of Trump obtaining the Two-Thirds majority in the Senate needed for his Greenland plans is fanciful.
It’s anybody’s guess, however, how much more damage Trump will do to America’s standing by continuing to push the idea of the US acquiring Greenland. Republicans in the House and Senate, facing hotly contested elections that may see the Democrats take back both the House and Senate, are increasingly concerned that Trump’s Greenland obsession is simply one grand diversion too many. While Trump concerns himself with the future of Venezuela, possible military intervention in Iran, the lack of progress in reconstructing Palestine, any possibility of Russia committing to a peace plan they would deem acceptable and now the tariff threats with Europe over Greenland, a world economy struggling at-best and the possibility of blowing-up NATO — the everyday needs of his core voting constituency shared by his fellow Republicans feels neglected. Continued issues with daily affordability of life in America, the unchecked rising costs of food staples, loss of Obamacare health insurance coverage due to the lapse in government subsidies, a worsening housing availability and affordability crisis and scant improvement in job numbers despite the promised boost from ICE and Border Patrol deportations, votes are being increasingly alienated by their standard bearer’s action that diverge from his promised anti-global engagement and isolationist agenda.
With 56% of Americans now disapproving of his performance (down -16% since November leaving only a 40% favourable rating), domestic alienation continues to plague Trump and his Administration. Despite market highs most credible economists project a significant economic slowdown or recession in 2026. There seems to be no plan to change course on the economy, foreign policy or the plethora of other concerns high on the Administration’s agenda.
Should the prospect of America losing access to military bases in Greenland, United Kingdom and Germany become a reality as a result of Trump’s direct challenge to NATO, given Europe’s solid rejection of his threats to Greenland, America’s ability to project power abroad would be severely curtailed. Europe no longer trusts Trump. Europe’s growing exasperation with the “don’t upset the baby” approach to containing his erratic foreign and economic policy making is now front and centre. If the US loses access to bases in Europe its role in the Middle East will be deeply diminished. Without European bases, the US would be virtually be limited to relying on naval strike forces with aircraft carriers. Its deterrent presence in Europe would immediately evaporate making the continent ever more vulnerable to Russia. Of course, this all goes without mentioning the impact it will have on American diplomatic interests with its oldest and most reliable partners on any array of interests.
Trump’s Greenland gambit is reckless, senseless and likely to fail at great cost to his cache and American prestige. Trump will be gone in just over 2-years. America, however, will need to function in the world order he is damaging daily.
Acquiring Greenland by purchase or force is a long-shot at best. There is no indication Greenlanders want to be Americans and forfeit free health care, free university education, social welfare supports let alone their heritage, culture and Still, the damage being caused by the attempt is significant. For a lame-duck President Constitutionally prohibited from serving a third-term in office, Trump’s Greenland gambit has far-reaching and deep ramifications for the future of American foreign policy into the foreseeable future.
Conspiracy theorists would ask (and not unreasonably), Cui Bono? The answer is Russia and China. Pragmatists, however, are asking simply one question, Why? Misdirection given domestic woes? Creating a diversion from the Epstein Files debacle? Continuing to exploit the Presidency for private, financial gain from vested interests? Or could it be that the problem is bigger than one man, Trump, and is shared by a democratic republic that abandoned its structural safeguards of division of power and authority, creating long-term stability through a principled foreign policy and the destruction of institutions and public trust? A synthesis of these probably answers the question best. But that is for academics and retrospection.
Today’s issue is pressing. What can and will be done, however, to restore stability at least in the near term when Trump openly Tweets his quest for Greenland is not rooted in security interests as claimed but not openly admits it is a vanity project arising from his umbrage in not being hailed as a Nobel Peace Prize winner? With Greenland being unequivocal it is not for sale, and with Europe holding enough Treasury Bonds to wreck the US economy overnight should Trump attempt to coerce it with tariffs or withholding funding from NATO, Trump is betting American mothers will be willing to see their sons and daughters die in military action to seize Greenland. Even Trump’s boosters who have tolerated his most questionable acts because they get so many of their other priorities met may draw a line at destroying NATO and weakening Europe in pursuit of the acquisition of Greenland owing to Trump’s increasingly personal vanity projects.
Any attempt to test if troops would fight and die for Trump’s vanity project against a non-aggressor State is sure to backfire and destabilise his Presidency. The Catholic Bishops know it and warned troops they can morally stand opposed to order to attack Greenland and while Trump might ask, “How many divisions has the Pope” the reality is they have outsized influence over approximately 55-million American voters – far more than is needed to route Republicans in the upcoming autumn elections and consign the Trump Administration to the dustbin of history at a time when he is already a lame-duck President.
Trump desperately needs to do a cost-benefit analysis and face the reality that it is the US Senate, weakened but still institutionalists and constitutionalists, that hold sway over both the purse strings needed to buy Greenland or provide a war powers authorization – neither which are likely to come. If he proceeds, the world will know what political operatives already understand – ‘The Emperor has no clothes’ and is impotent to make his Greenland obsession a reality. The pursuit, remains however, an ongoing exercise in self-injury and one likely to have lasting consequences for Trump, America and world order.
Putin, who is smiling from behind Kremlin walls, however, understands the ultimate outcome of this misadventure — his politics and military will soon be blunted by an enhanced resolve by Europe to be far more self-reliant and sufficient.
