by Miceál O’Hurley
BRATISLAVA — Slovakia has further solidified its anti-European Union, anti-NATO and pro-Russian posture following the election of Nationalist-left government candidate Peter Pellegrini to Slovakia’s Presidency. Pellegrini defeated the liberal, pro-western opposition candidate Ivan Korčok who garnered 46.14% of the popular vote compared to Pellegrini’s 53.85%. 98% of polling stations have reported at the time of this report.
Korčok conceded the defeat and congratulated Pellegrini upon his election.. “I’m disappointed,” he said in his concession speech. Korčok publicly state that he respected the result.
Pellegrini is a close ally of Slovakia’s Prime Minister, Robert Fico. Fico won election last September shifting Slovakia to the far left with a markedly nationalistic bent. Fico opposes many EU initiatives including support for Ukraine. His pro-Russian and anti-American platform won significant favour with the Slovakian electorate last September. Fico’s electoral momentum has sustained his coalition Government bolstering its power with the election Pellegrini to the Presidency. The Pellegrini-Fico consolidation of parliamentary-executive and presidential-constitutional authority concerns many pro-European leaders that Slovakia may be abandoning its pro-democratic and Western oriented outlook that previously saw it enter the EU and NATO.
One of Fico’s first initiatives upon election last autumn was to use his parliamentary powers to terminate the further shipment of arms and supplies to Ukraine. Pellegrini campaign on sustaining that policy. During the campaign Pellegrini told the AFP news agency that the EU and NATO were “divided between those who are in favour of the continuation of the war [between Russia and Ukraine] at all costs, and those who demand the start of peace negotiations”. Korčok, who had previously served as Slovakia’s Ambassador to the US and Germany, voiced his staunch support for Slovakia’s robust participation and membership in both the EU and NATO.
Pellegrini and Fico have often opposed the EU and NATO blocs though selectively embraced them when it served their purposes.
Slovakian Presidency Has Limited Yet Critical Powers
Slovakia’s Government vests most executive powers in the Prime Minister limiting its Presidency to only a few, yet critical constitutional powers. The President is charged with the authority to appoint the prime minister after parliamentary elections, swear-in the new government and appoint the constitutional court judiciary. As a matter of checks-and-balances, the President also holds constitutional authority to veto laws passed by the legislature, albeit Parliament can override the veto with a simple majority. The President also has the reserved power to challenge Parliament in the constitutional court. The President additionally holds the authority to right to pardon convicts.
Given the specific powers of Slovakia’s Presidency, Pellegrini’s most influential tool upon taking office will be the authority to exercise Veto powers over legislation. Together with Fico, the Veto, or the lack of threat thereof, will further consolidate their coalition’s powers to further tilt Slovakia away from mainstream EU policies. Their consolidation of presidential-and-prime ministerial powers copper-fastens Slovakia’s prohibition on sending arms and aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia, a posture that will alienate many in the EU even if the act does not. That same posture will also present opportunities for Slovakia to wield its influence in powers inverse to its size and importance to their place in Europe. The questions is, “Do Pellegrini and Fico have the finesse to use their position to its maximum advantage?“.
Election Re-Aligns Slovakia as an EU and NATO Skeptic State
Aligned with Hungary which holds similar positions, the EU may find providing future aid to Ukraine and achieving other policy goals increasingly difficult. European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen congratulated Pellegrini on his victory none-the-less. In her statement on “X” (formerly Twitter), Von der Leyen expressed her desire to collaborate with Pellegrini on issues of importance to the EU bloc and mutual importance to Slovakia. Given the oppositional policy goals between Von der Leyen and Pellegrini it remains to be seen how constructive their relationship will prove over time. Slovakia joined the EU in 2004 and adopted the Euro as its currency in 2009.
Slovakia joined NATO in 2004. Given Pellegrini’s election coupled with Fico’s stated policy orientation it is likely that Slovakia will continue to frustrate NATO initiatives to ensure Ukraine has steady funding in the coming years. NATO is currently attempting to position itself to absorb any shocks that might be caused should Donald Trump be returned to the White House. Trump has often floated the idea that he would withdraw the U.S. from NATO. Should the U.S. diminish or terminate its role in NATO the Hungary-Slovakia alliance which is decidedly warm to Russian policies and objectives could cause considerable consternation in maintaining the relatively new and invigorated unity NATO has enjoyed since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Pellegrin’s Nationalistic Campaign
Pellegrini campaigned on a platform of keeping Slovakia out of further escalations in the plethora of conflicts involving Russia from territorial disputes in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine to issues of trade, security and application of the rule of law. Speaking from Bratislava in the aftermath of his election Pellegrini pledged, “… to ensure that Slovakia remains on the side of peace and not on the side of war”. Pellegrini favours Ukraine negotiating a cease-fire and ceding of territory to Russia. Russia has indicated through its Minister for Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, that it sees no benefit to negotiating with Ukraine at this time in a format that does not commence with the international recognition of Russia’s attempts to annex Ukrainian territory.
Pellegrini’s agenda could be summarised as promoting several specific policy goals, though it remains the prerogative of the Parliament under Fico’s control to put any of Pellegrin’s policy objections into action:
- Economic Policies
The state of Slovakia’s economy shows signs of increasing troubles. With Government debt reaching 48% of the GDP, Pellegrini campaign on the fundamentals of economic growth, including job creation, fiscal restraint and attracting inward foreign investment. His previous roles included Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance before becoming Prime Minister which may assist him in furthering his agenda. - Domestic Priorities
One of Pellegrin’s greatest appeals in his campaign was his focus on domestic social policy. Slovakia’s health, education and social welfare sectors are mired in bureaucracy and inefficiencies. Improving access to health care, promoting investment in education (especially at the university level) while promoting domestic talent retentions and addressing the increased disparity in income amongst rising poverty and inequality will be necessary given Pellegrini’s campaign promises. However, Pellegrini’s fiscal constraint policies will immediately present significant hurdles for his coalition to overcome. Pellegrini and Fico’s mandates may well depend on rapid improvement in domestic satisfaction rates amongst Slovakians. - European and Foreign Policy
While a decided Euro-skeptic politician harbouring significant nationalist ideology, Pellegrini is well aware that Slovakia’s relationship and status within the EU is vital to the nation’s economic prosperity. A pragmatist, Pellegrini may well align his policies with major EU policies on cohesion, trade, integration and security all while opposing immigration and other social policies antithetical to his nationalist and radically liberal values that often reflect Russian sympathies. Pellegrini is facing into a headwind of challenges in convincing other EU partners to enhance relations while maintaining his opposition to key EU objectives such as defending the territorial integrity of Ukraine. - Good Government
Pellegrini needs to confront corruption and bureaucratic inefficiencies in the Government. From continuing judicial reforms to strengthening democratic institutions Pellegrini must improve good governance to meeting his other policy goals which require the good will of Slovakia’s EU partners and potential private sector investors. Transparency and promoting the rule of law must top Pellegrini’s agenda.
- Climate, Environment and Sustainability
Intrinsically connected to his economic development policies Pellegrini will undoubtedly pursue policies to promote environmental protection, and sustainable development. The promotion of renewable energy would not only address significant infrastructure deficiencies at play in Slovakia but provide a sector for significant economic growth. The mitigation of climate change causing pollution through the reduction of carbon emissions would be a natural bi-product of good environmental policies. The domestic appetite for natural resource preservation and recovery would also prove popular with the Slovakian people lending yet another reason for this area to be a priority for Pellegrini and the Fico coalition.
Transition of Power
Pellegrini will assume office as the country’s 6th President since Slovakia gained independence in 1993. He will replace Slovakia’s first female head-of-state, Zuzana Čaputová. Čaputová, who announced last year she would not stand for re-election, had been a staunch backer Ukraine. Beginning last June, Čaputová was increasingly subjected to credible death threats which reportedly led her to announce that she would not seek another term as President.
At 48, Pellegrini serves at the head of the far-left Hlas (Voice) party. Hlas finished 3rd in last September’s parliamentary elections and became an integral part of Fico’s governing coalition lead by Fico’s ultra-nationalist Slovak National Party.
Fico’s anti-Ukrainian policies and praise for Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin and Russian foreign policy has angered thousands of Slovakians. In recent weeks throngs of protestors have taken to the streets to protest Slovakia’s tilt towards Russia. Fico’s plans to amend the penal code and sieze control of public media outlets has alarmed large sections of the Slovakian electorate who find the policies “authoritarian” and “anti-democratic”. The anger expressed in the street protests did not, however, see the opposition turn-out in sufficient numbers to defeat Pellegrini’s Presidential bid. It remains uncertain if the protests will continue given the results of the election.
Pellegrini will have difficulty reconciling his anti-EU rhetoric with the necessity of embracing EU partners to assist Slovakia’s flagging economy. His relationship with Fico, which had previously been strained, may determine who much progress the coalition government achieves and the speed by which they can implement their policies. Despite the coalition, balancing EU and NATO obligations with Pellegrini and Fico’s stated opposition to many of each bloc’s policies will require a delicate balancing act that might blunt the power they coalition has consolidated with their electoral victories.
